Who would have thought that the first week of April 2025 would make us nostalgic for the relative calm (!) of March?  If we hadn’t realized it before, uncertainty isn't just an occasional challenge—it's a constant. Effective leaders understand that their most crucial role during periods of ambiguity is to create clarity and calm for their organizations. When everything seems to be shifting, a leader who can establish islands of stability is most effective.  Even if you are shivering in your shoes, that’s not what your people need from you right now – they need to know that they are moving along as safe a path as you can clear for them. 

Uncertainty triggers our threat-detection systems. Our brains are wired to react to unpredictability with fight-or-flight stress reactions, making clear thinking nearly impossible. This evolutionary response, while once crucial for survival, becomes counterproductive in modern organizational settings. When a workforce is collectively experiencing this stress response, productivity plummets, innovation stalls, and poor decisions multiply. 

Great leaders understand this physiological reality and actively work to counteract it. They don't deny uncertainty—that would destroy credibility—but they frame it in ways that create psychological safety. Consider how Satya Nadella transformed Microsoft's culture when he took over during a period of market disruption, when the company was being written off as no longer relevant by many. Rather than pretending to have all the answers, he instead adopted Carol Dweck’s concept of creating a growth mindset and vowed to change the company from “know it alls” to “learn it alls.” 

Effective leaders also establish process clarity when outcome clarity isn't possible. During the early days of the pandemic, Jacinda Ardern couldn't predict how events would unfold, but she created remarkable calm by establishing clear decision-making processes, communication cadences, and criteria for various scenarios. This procedural clarity gave New Zealanders confidence even when the future remained unpredictable and led to the country having far fewer COVID19 infections and deaths per capita than comparable countries. 

Creating calm requires emotional regulation—what psychologist Daniel Goleman calls “emotional intelligence.” When leaders model composure during crisis, it ripples throughout the organization. Alan Mulally demonstrated this at Ford as he turned the nearly bankrupt company around, maintaining steady optimism balanced with realism. His “working together” philosophy and weekly business plan review meetings became legendary among businesspeople for the way in which clarity on where everyone was – transparently, without blaming people for being “red” on important goals – was created. 

Ultimately, the leader who thrives in uncertainty doesn't eliminate it—that's impossible—but transforms it from a paralyzing force into a navigable landscape. By creating islands of clarity in seas of ambiguity, they give their people something solid to stand on while facing the unknown. In doing so, they don't just help their organizations survive uncertainty—they position them to capitalize on the opportunities that uncertainty inevitably creates. 

Thought Sparks

It's hard to believe that at the end of this month I’ll be heading to The Reinvention Summit, named as one of Forbes’ Top 5 Leadership Summits in 2025! I'm giving a keynote at the Summit and will be joined by Aidan McCullen, Nadya Zhexembayeva, Alex Osterwalder, Seth Godin, Charles Conn, and other leaders in innovation and strategy, to create strategies for leaders and organizations to successfully reinvent themselves and thrive amid disruption. We’re convening April 29 and 30.  

Our Valize team is putting together special programming around the Summit, including an Evolving Small Advanced Country Summit on April 28, and a VIP retreat on May 1. These are designed for leaders who want to take a deeper dive into the topics of disruption and reinvention, with hands-on AI workshops, networking coaching sessions, and executive dining experiences. 

Summit tickets are running out – be sure to save your spot!  

 Get in touch, keep in touch! 

I work with organizations to run workshops, provide training and offer ideas.  Everything from one-on-one leadership coaching to speaking in really big conference rooms.  Think that might be useful?  Get in touch! 

Twitter @rgmcgrath 

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/ritamcgrath  

Website: www.ritamcgrath.com  

Valize website: www.valize.com